Zen and the Successful Horseplayer: How to Win and Find Calmness in Horse Wagering.

Know the facts about being a successful Horseplayer before the Kentucky Derby!

The Kentucky Derby arguably the biggest day in horse racing is in a few days.  Nyquist will be the big favorite after his Florida Derby win where he crushed the favorite earning a 94 Beyer Speed figure.  He is a legitimate favorite, but I think he is no lock.

At the low price you’ll get, maybe 3 or 4 to one, I’ll only use him in combo bets like pick 3s, and pick 4s.  To get some value I would look beyond him.  On sloppy track Exaggerator ran a big race in the Santa Anita Derby earning a 103 Beyer.  BUT, while visually impressive the pace numbers showed him staying at the same pace throughout the race.  He might not have been going so fast at the end, just that the other horses were slowing down.  Finally, maybe he is only a slop horse.  Check the weather on Derby day before locking in on Exaggerator.

Let’s go back to Nyquist for a moment.  He’s clearly fast and quick enough because he’s shown that in his shorter races this year.  Tactical speed is important in the Derby, and he seems to have that.  And he’s way better than all of  the rivals he beat in the Florida Derby, none of those also rans will factor in the Kentucky Derby.  One horse who will get some play that I do not like is Mohaymen.  He was the favorite in Florida and was a non factor.  He had been undefeated until he got thumped; it might have been an aberration but I’ll side with Nyquist as way better.

The good news is these are the favorites, and not the horses I will be emphasizing in my multi-horse wagers like the trifecta.  Those will be some longer shots.  I’ll talk about that later.