Let’s talk about a key Kentucky Derby prep race–The Arkansas Derby.  I think the Kentucky Derby winner (and contenders for place and show) may come from this race.
CREATOR the winner closed from last and ran a 96 Beyer Speed figure.  The place horse was SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS  who also closed and was getting to CREATOR and ran a 94 Beyer.  Attached to this post is a replay of that race and some of the other prep races.  The Arkansas Derby may be the key that unlocks winning in the Kentucky Derby.  The main closers will be coming from the Arkansas Derby, and I think the contenders will be closers or rate closers.
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS had some trouble down the lane and closed with interest.  He is about 20 to 1 morning line for the Derby, and I think CREATOR will go off at about 10 to 1.  These are both nice prices on horses I think have a shot.
The pace of the Kentucky Derby is always difficult to figure with so many horses, but I think it will be fast.  Trainer Clifford Sise Jr assured the Daily Racing Form DANZING CANDY will be “winging it from the get-go”, and I think NYQUIST (the favorite) won’t be far back.  This may compromise NYQUIST at the end.  Also, going wire to wire in the Derby is almost an impossibility, and DANZING CANDY likely will fade out of the top four finishers.  The other speed types may also be compromised as they try to keep pace with NYQUIST; these would include OUTWORK and MOHAYMAN.
The race seems to be a perfect set up for CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS.  Even though these two horses may be breaking from the gate from inside posts their closing style should offset these poor post draws.  I think the value is here.  EXAGGERATOR will also try to come from the back as he did in the sloppy Santa Anita Derby, but no rain is scheduled.  I’ll stick with CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, and use a little of EXAGGERATOR and NYQUIST (in case he is just too good to beat).
One final thought—the Kentucky Oaks for 3 year old fillies is Friday, and it is a toughie with the loss of star SONGBIRD.  If you can find a filly you like be sure to wheel a ticket with her into the horses you like in the Derby.  It is a $1.00 base bet and it can pay big.  Nothing for sure in this tough filly race, but one I’ll definitely include is LEWIS BAY because she has good tactical speed.
Good luck, and make sure to have fun over the weekend.  As always tip your teller generously if you win.